Ruskin's Discovery of Anthropic Climate Change

Must make a short account that expresses the idea of thriller …mystery story slowly solved or Quote this at beginning

~~RRG Article~~

Ruskin's Discovery of Anthropic Climate Change : cooling and warming : the greatest challenge of our Time

/the 21st century . Option 1 : two groups of texts (Final version for the moment 24.07.16)

There are two sets of texts of Ruskin concerning anthropic climate change, that is caused by human activity, one implying climate warming, the other climate cooling.

The first group involves/concerns principally the preface to the Queen of the Air, 1869, and Fors 34, 1873.

These texts have been largely ignored

Nevertheless they would seem to be sufficient to argue that Ruskin had prophesied to some/a great extent the current warming climate change.

The second group were collected together in Ruskin’s Storm cloud of the 19th century lectures, given in 1884, and published as such the same year

They are by far the better known of the two groups

I believe this second group of texts has not been analyzed correctly

Let us begin by examining the second group of texts (option A)

Though Ruskin never uses the term climate in these texts as he does in the first group, we would like/will to argue that this second group of texts concerns basically/also climate change

~~However Ruskin also wrote much better known texts, implying a cooling of the climate :~~

~~These were collected together in the lectures given in 1884 and published as the Storm cloud of the 19th century the same year, and are much better known than the warming texts quoted above~~

In the first of these lectures Ruskin describes how he first discovered/observed an entirely new type of cloud.
It was, he wrote in the July 1871 no of Fors Clavigera, walking back to Abingdon from Oxford, 34.32(§29), and 29....
in early may.

but during the following months I had too frequent opportunities of verifying my first thoughts of them, and on the first of July in that year wrote the description of them which begins the Fors Clavigera of August, thus:—

~~In the course of these lectures Ruskin quotes from earlier writings of his.~~

~~The first of these texts dates from 1871.~~

See our HO of S

In july of that year , Ruskin wrote in Fors 8, § 1, (27.134) :

“…It is the first of July, and I sit down to write by the dismallest light that ever yet I wrote by; namely, the light of this midsummer morning, in mid-England (Matlock, Derbyshire), in the year 1871.

For the sky is covered with grey cloud;—not rain-cloud, but a dry black veil, which no ray of sunshine can pierce; partly diffused in mist, feeble mist, enough to make distant objects unintelligible, yet without any substance, or wreathing, or color of its own….Dismal enough, had it been the first morning of its kind that summer had sent. But during all this spring, in London, and at Oxford, through meagre March, through changelessly sullen April, through despondent May, and darkened June, morning after morning has come grey-shrouded thus.And it is a new thing to me, and a very dreadful one. I am fifty years old, and more; and since I was five, have gleaned the best hours of my life in the sun of spring and summer mornings; and I never saw such as these, till now.

And the scientific men are busy as ants, examining the sun, and the moon, and the seven stars, and can tell me all about them, I believe, by this time; and how they move, and what they are made of.

And I do not care, for my part, two copper spangles how they move, nor what they are made of. I can’t move them any other way than they go, nor make them of anything else, better than they are made. But I would care much and give much, if I could be told where this bitter wind comes from, and what it is made of and, (implicitly) what this cloud is made of )add note : addition suggested by the present writer (check the manuscript)

For, perhaps, with forethought, and fine laboratory science, one might make it (them) of something else.’ ” (Passage not clear. I suggest : one might make something else of them See manuscript) (I suggest here that there has been a slip of the pen. The passage should read « one might make of them something else » Or see the manuscript?

Refer to this passage later on : man must get involved to modify level of CO2, outside laboratory of course )

He goes on to suggest that this new cloud may be made of the “poisonous smoke… from the at least two hundred furnace chimneys in a square of two miles on every side” of him.’(Works, 27, 133 )

He continues, in his best characteristic inconsequential style :

He adds here, in his best inconsequential style, in the Stormcloud lecture texte; the following another uncannily prophetic prophecy

The last sentence refers of course to the battles of the Franco-German campaign, which was especially horrible to me, in its digging, as the Germans should have known, a moat flooded with waters of death between the two nations for a century to come.

This is how Ruskin ends the second lecture :

"The harmony is now broken, and broken the world around

…Month by month the darkness gains upon the day, and the Ashes of the Antipodes glare through the night.”

In a note added for the publication of these lectures, Ruskin adds :

‘There is a reference here to the lurid sunsets of the autumn of 1883 which were thought to be due to the volcanic ashes of the eruption Krakatoa.

Put Munch here

Explain later

Replace : Ruskin was to some extent aware of this contradiction between these two series of texts

Ruskin never seeme to have noticed commented on he contradiction between these

REPLACE : (Leslie wrote to Ruskin, in …..? "This early arrival of the northern ice seems to show that the mild winters have extended even to the Arctic Circle, and point to some real increase in the mower or heat of the sun"

At this point Ruskin adds in a footnote : "I don't believe it a bit. I think the sun's going out." (Dilecta, Works, )

Ruskin does not use the term climate change in the second series of texts as he does in the first series of texts, but I think it is clear that what he describes would implies a climate change, even though it did not occur, though as we will see below it did occur partially later on.

He is prophesizing here a potentially catastrophic global climate change : « "The harmony is now broken, and broken the world around

…Month by month the darkness gains upon the day, and the Ashes of the Antipodes glare through the night.

Man made : « this new cloud may be made of the “poisonous smoke… from the at least two hundred furnace chimneys in a square of two miles on every side” of him.’

REPLACE : (Having to choose between the two, he chose the second (footnote to Leslie’s letter) but he had also anticipated the first …

It would be, according to Ruskin, one or the other, but could not be avoided

First analysis of 2nd group of texts

The editors of the Library Edition? Cook and Wedderburn emphasized notes the reference to smoke of chimneys, (quote at length), that Ruskin himself notes

Direct quote :

Taken up by all subsequent commentators (names? )

But stops here

Analysis not complete enough

Yet Ruskin had asked

What is smoke ? Aerosols : reflect back the heat

Must ask was there a local or general cooling of climate, that is consistent

How can I check local

It so happens that there was a semi-global cooling of the climate in the middle of the following century due to industrial smoke and other types of aerosols, as we shall see below, but it was preceded by a climate warming, which became predominant again after this cooling period.

Though at this time it was established later on scientifically that a warming climate change was going on at the time Ruskin write the second series of texts.

As we all know today a climate warming change is has occurred or is occurring, and is expected to continue though it has taken the form of a climate warming

But in fact It was established that both tendencies occurred simultaneously, one predominating at different times

Whether the warming tendency, which has predominated up till now, was man made, though the majority of scientists agree that it is so, is the subject of some dispute.

We could leave it at that

Yet it would seems therefor interesting important to go over the research that has established that it is essentially a man made phenomenon, as there is still some argument about this point and as any self respecting ruskinian ought to be able to hold his own with/against a so called climate septic.

There are still many of them US Congress, where the republican majority are all climate septics.

Hence this brief account of the discovery of anthropogenic climate change, both warming and cooling. Which Ruskin had called for on several occasions.

There was a predominantly cooling period form 1940 to the 1970’s

The scientific research also esablie

REPLACE ABOVE : TWO WARMING PERIODS

As we said above, there was at first a predominantly warming period that began in 1860

This was established in 1938 by Callendar

The basic physics was worked out during the 19th century Joseph Fourier, John Tyndale, James Croll and Svante Arrhenius. Calendar

Fourier

Early in the century the french physicist Joseph Fourier, a French scientist, had discovered/established the necessary existence of a natural greenhouse effect : something stopped the heat from feting going back into space

John Tyndale, a british scientist, first explained lucidly/clearly how it/this worked. He discovered that CO2 and water were greenhouse gases that were retained by …

He had initially thought been stymied by the opinion held most scientists of the time that all gases are transparent to infrared radiation. In 1859 Tyndale decided to check this out in his laboratory whether all gases are transparent to infrared radiation. He confirmed that the main gases in the atmosphere, oxygen and nitrogen, are indeed transparent. He was about to give up when he thought of trying coal gas. This is an industrial gas produce by heating coal, mainly methane, which was used for lighting. It was right at his hand, piped into his laboratory. He found that for heat rays this as was as opaque as a block of wood. Tyndale went on to try other gases, and found that the gas CO2 was also likewise opaque - what we would now call a greenhouse gas.

A good exemple of fine laboratory science.

Tyndale, as we saw in Ruskin’s text quoted above, was not interested/ concerned by the problem of contemporary warming of the climate. He was interested in solving the mystery of the ice ages. But this discovery of his would help to solve both these mysteries.

Croll/Arrhenius

A the end of the century Svante Arrhenius, a swedish scientist, who took up again

the riddle of the ice ages again at the end of the 19th century, in 1896.

Also interested in ice age, Arrhenius proposes/suggests :

If series of volcanic eruptions, CO2 gas increased

Brings about more moisture, which produces a feed back with water vapor, which it the most effective greenhouse. has effect dumolactio effect first brought forward by

James Croll

Same Tyndale ? No

Suggests there could be variations in CO 2 from more or less volcanic activity

If more CO2 more water, more heat captured/retained , glaciers melt …

Also he takes a suggestion from his collegue another Swedish scientist, Arvid Högbom, who found that estimated carbon production from industrial sources in the 1890s (mainly coal burning) was comparable with the natural sources.[14] Arrhenius saw that this human emission of carbon would eventually lead to warming. However, because of the relatively low rate of CO₂ production in

1896, Arrhenius thought the warming would take thousands of years, and he expected it would be beneficial to humanity,

Callendar

With the help of the world wide meteorological stations,

This It was established to some extent/confirmed more thoroughly than anyone else for the first time by Callendar in 1938 that there was climate warming going on

He also claimed at the time that he knew ‘what was responsible : it was us, human industry. Every where we burned fossil fuels we emitted millions of tons of carbone dioxide gas (CO2), and that was changing the climate’

Callendar joined all these elements together, and

Did not worry Callendar : thought it would take a long time would be beneficial

Did not convince every one

Was one explanation amongst many others that could explain climate change

Scientists hd been especially ontrested i

REPLACE LATER : The other possible explanations of climate change had been elaborated

At this time scientists were mainly interested in the mystery of the ace ages which were discovered at this time

Only Ruskin was concerned with present possible climate change

Amongst other possible cause were slant of earth, sun and vegetation …

One cause brought forward for the ice ages would be the absence of CO2 spewed forth by volcanic eruptions, during a period when there were no such eruptions

Tyndale did not suspect that CO2 could be produced by human activity. This would be up to Croll and Arrhenius a swedish scientist

as did Callendar

But there were Objections to this

Objections to Arrhenius, (W 7-8)

7-8,

1 This account is taken from Spencer Weart, The discovery of Global Warming, 2003, revised and updated version 2008, and its online expanded and updated version at https://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm.

i. saturation occurs with very small quantities of gas. Adding more would make no difference. (See p. 23, Plass discovers answer to this …)

ii Very little CO2 in atmosphere. Any increase would wind up in ocean. (Objection met by Revelle, p. ?)

iii. Arrhenius had simplified

Too technical just mention

There were some objections to this that

1 G.S. Callander, Quarterly review …see Weart website

Quoted by Weart, DGW (note for page three, first mention on Callendar)

The answers to these objections were found

The idea came up of measuring CO2 in the global atmosphere

This required very costly equipment

this was furnished by the military thanks to the cold war

Thanks to this Keeling was able to confirm and measure the gradual increase of CO2 from 1958 onwards

CO2 became a serious possibility. It could no longer be dismissed offhand by any well-informed scientist

The situation was complicated when M announced that from 1940 there had been a cooling period

SUITE

COOLING PERIOD

Things became complicated and alarming when it was established that a cooling of the global climate had occurred from 1940 onwards.

This was established by Mitchell in 1962 ?

At the time Mitchell could not give an explanation for this phenomenon

It was discovered that it was due to the aerosols emitted by industry (Ruskin’s ‘poisonous smoke emitted from the at least two hundred furnace chimneys’ ) and agriculture (bush fires, …

Thus was to last till the 1970’s

Budyko

For a while ir was difficult to decide which way things would go

Finally it became clear at the beginning of the 80’s years that warming was predominant

We will come back to the later

It could come from Milan …a natural turn

A new ice age ?

Was discovered could come also from aerosols…

It came from aerosols

aerosols were minute floating particles that reflected back the sun into space, cooling the atmosphere

which could tale several forms : industrial smoke, as we saw above with Ruskin, jet aircraft….bush burning, forest burning

Scientists had noticed a new form of cloud in US and Brinley over India…

aerosols had not been the subject of much research

saw that haze cloud last for a long time

Then trend was toward warming …

washed out of sky more quickly than CP2

Put in doubt warping

did not know which way would go :warming of cooling

Let us look more closely at the texts

Good Replace

In both series of texts Ruskin called for scientific research on the two phenomena involved : receding snow/glaciers in the Alps, and the formation of a life stifling cloud emanating from the Industrial Midlands

Let us go back to the cooling text above

He goes on to suggest that this new cloud may be made of the “poisonous smoke… from the at least two hundred furnace chimneys in a square of two miles on every side” of him.

But what is this smoke made of, asks Ruskin of the scientists

The answer to this question will only be given in the 1950’s : aerosols

Aerosols can take many forms

They make up the

This would result in a cooling of the climate

The answer to this question given by scientists during the 20th century was aerosols

What are aerosols ?

Aerosols are minute microscopic air-borne particles, that scatter radiation from the sun back into space, cooling the earth.

The conditions described by Ruskin does not seem to have produced any local or global cooling of the climat, in the 1870’s and 1880’s and 1890’s (or in the later part of the

but in fact when the question of global climate came up for the first time, in the 1930’s it was to conclude that there had been going of a warming of the climate since approximately 1860

19th century) or to have offset the global warming of the climate which, it has been established scientifically have taken took place from 1860 onwards, until 1940.

Aerosols

This contemporary global warming did not attract any great attention by scientists who were much more interested in solving the problem of the ice ages.

One possibility was the introduction of CO2

This A global cooling of the occurred during the following century, from 1940 to the late 1960’s, due to other forms taken by aerosols : in California, the skies were ortuse with

Flying over India, Bryson

He was seeing smoke from fields set on fire by the growing population of slash and burn farmers, and dust from from overgraze lands turning to dust

Cloud of dus, murk, haze,

The effects seem large enough to affect the climate of the entire planet. Together with pollution from industry, the smoke and dust might bloke enough sunlight to significantly cool the surface.

Mitchell

Succeeded in showing an overall global cooling

Place :

this cause a

Smoke

What is smoke ?

Aerosols

The models showed some alarming results

In the 1980’s climate change took a new direction : warming again became predominant

True : An unprecedented warming was under way…(W121)

In 1975 two New Zealand reporete that while the northern hemisphere had been cooling southern was warming

scientists report that cooling only in north, not in southern hemisphere

Perhaps in north CO2 counteracted by aerosols from industry

Perhaps the greenhouse warming was counteracted by industrial haze

This is right concentrate on Aerosols

See Weart website on the subject

If we follow the evolution of the global during the 19 and 20th centuries and the scientific research which was (then) undertaken during the 19th century and especially during the 20th century on the question of climate change we discover that they can be

In Fors ,quote in the Stormcloud lectures

Is talkin g of CC

In HiIton does not say what prophetic of

If one talks the two seroes together one undersrsnas what he is talking about : CC not an occasnkla plootion from industrial smoke

Inthe relative shirt trerm sonce in the long term, in 3 bi

This would be the end of humanity unless they mande to get tinter solar system

It is nt Arrhenius but Ruskin who first

must take part in debate

is us does not accept is hopeless

Once understand is climate

Ought to be able to hold own in debate with a sceptic

militate for a world gov (Equivalent of guild on international level)

Jin hiold

practise inlofe viluntiat simplicity of and measure recommende bu Gore ay ed go book

Place : One day you will understand my words

Must go to very end of reasoning of weary who confirms there is a warming, only in last twenty years (he says : now was establish despite all the doubts…………as much as could be )

To confirm what Ruskin jumps to immediately intuitively for biblical reasons or a sort of common sense …

FOLLOW UP

For, perhaps, with forethought, and fine laboratory science, one might make it (them) of something else.’ ” (Passage not clear. I suggest : one might make something else of them See manuscript)

Refer to this passage later on : man must get involved to modify level of CO2)

Place

Ruskin did not wait for scientific confirmation

REPLACE

Passage pas clair en Anglais. Je propose …voir manuscript) Refer to this passage later on : man must get involved to modify level of CO2)

That is reduce the level of CO2, and make of it again an entirely constructive/life sustaining element of life on earth.)

No is not CO2 here but aerosols

But could transfer this idea to CO2

REPLACE

(came after This is how Ruskin ends the second lecture :

"The harmony is now broken, and broken the world around

…Month by month the darkness gains upon the day, and the Ashes of the Antipodes glare through the night.”

(Munch The Scream)

In a note added for the publication of these lectures, Ruskin adds :

‘There is a reference here to the lurid sunsets of the autumn of 1883 which were thought to be due to the volcanic ashes of the eruption Krakatoa. This has been since, I hear, disproved.’

It seems that Ruskin’s first supposition was correct

It has been, established that Munch’s the scream, painted in 1893, had been inspired by the view he had had, in 1883, of the bloody sunsets caused by the volcanic explosions of Krakatoa in that year 1883, the very ones Ruskin was referring to in this concluding paragraph of the Stormcloud lectures. (add note referring to article )

MUNCH THE SCREAM, or Ruskin discovering climate change

Note : In a study published in 2044 in the review

ALTERNATIVE

But if study

Il semble que la premiere supposition de Ruskin ait été la bonne. En effet dans une étude publié en 2004 dans la revue Sky and Telescope, le professeur de physique et d’astronomie Donald W Olson a démontré que la célèbre peinture de Munch, put this in a note le Cri, peint en 1893, avait été inspiré par la vue que Munch avait eu, en 1883, des couchers de soleil ensanglantés causés par les explosions volcaniques de Krakatoa de 1883, celles-là mêmes aux quelles faisaient référence Ruskin dans son texte.

(add here)

Le Cri de Munch

This is at the end of the second lecture :

Replace

In both he implies a connection of climate with human activity, producing two products with two very different types climate change : of results : types of product : the first

producing CO2, and climate warming, the second aerosols and climate cooling (or voce versa)

(24.07.16 : Introduce warming text here

Cooling text and fact is not so important, though alarm of cooling text mist be transferred to warming

REMINDER

Must make a short account that expresses the idea of thriller …mystery story slowly solved

Quote this at beginning

REJETS

In Fors no. 8 of 1871, concerning this new cloud, he wrote :

« And the scientific men are busy as ants, examining the sun, and the moon, and the seven stars, and can tell me all about them, I believe, by this time; and how they move, and what they are made of.

And I do not care, for my part, two copper spangles how they move, nor what they are made of. I can’t move them any other way than they go, nor make them of anything else, better than they are made. But I would care much and give much, if I could be told where this bitter wind comes from, and what it is made of (add here : and (implicitly) what this cloud is made of )

For, perhaps, with forethought, and fine laboratory science, one might make it (them) of something else.’ ” (I suggest here that there has been a slip of the pen. The passage should read « one might make of them something else » Or see the manuscript?

during the following century

roa dans the eh etouffant

But Ruskin wrote other texts which seem to imply a cooling of the climate 18

ll faut évidemment jouter nuage ici associe ce nuage avec un vent….if faut garder le passage sur le vent ? et le compléter

Cooling texts:

No global cooling in 1870’s or 1880’s

Which one prevailed, of climate cool cooling of climate warming ?

In 1869, this is what Ruskin wrote in his preface to the Queen of the Air :

He goes on to jggest that his may come from

WHAT IS THIS ? BELOW SAME AS ABOVE ?

I would like to argue that it os

In this text Ruskin describes a new type of cloud

The first time he noticed it was in

Not in previous literature

He brings up the subject x times in : ……, 27, 28, 29

he ends the second lecture with an ominous warning : month by month the darkness gains upon the day and the ashes of the Antipodes glare through the night.*

Linked to industrial smoke …

To test this declaration, we must examine what has happened since Ruskin made

In fact

But we need here an introduction ti the Stormcloud essay

Or New option no. ? replace : warming texts

Overlooked

Makes Ruskkin first to …

But things are not so simple

But what about

In 1871, of Fors 8, of July 1871, Ruskin wrote about what he descried as the Stormcloud of the 19th century

COOLING TEXTS

But Ruskin wrote other texts which seem to imply a cooling of the climate

But I would care much and give much, if I could be told where this bitter wind comes from, and what it is made of (add here) and what this cloud is made of )

For, perhaps, with forethought, and fine laboratory science, one might make it (them) of something else.’ ” (Passage pas clair en Anglais. Je propose …voir manuscript) Refer to this passage later on : man must get involved to modify level of CO2)

ll faut évidemment jouter nuage ici associe ce nuage avec un vent….if faut garder le passage sur le vent ? et le compléter

This is obviously an accidental omission. Ruskin his mental health failing, would not be able to do the necessary corrections in later editions as there would not be any.

He goes on to suggest that this new cloud may be made of the “poisonous smoke… from the at least two hundred furnace chimneys in a square of two miles on every side” of him.

In the course of the first lecture he goes on to give the main characteristics of the new cloud, which he calls plague cloud: Its main carateristics is these are that it blanches the sun,

He ends the first lecture with:

Blanched Sun,—blighted grass,—blinded man.—If, in conclusion, you ask me for any conceivable cause or meaning of these things—I can tell you none, according to your modern beliefs; but I can tell you what meaning it would have borne to the men of old time. Remember, for the last twenty years, England, and all foreign nations, either tempting her, or following her, have blasphemed² the name of God deliberately and openly; and have done iniquity by proclamation, every man doing as much injustice to his brother as it is in his power to do. Of states in such moral gloom every seer of old predicted the physical gloom, saying, “The light shall be darkened in the heavens thereof, and the stars shall withdraw their shining.”¹ All Greek, all Christian, all Jewish prophecy insists on the same truth through a thousand myths; but of all the chief, to former thought, was the fable of the Jewish warrior and prophet, for whom the sun hasted not to go down, with which I leave you to compare at leisure the physical result of your own wars and prophecies, as declared by your own elect journal not fourteen days ago,—that the Empire of England, on which formerly the sun never set, has become one on which he never rises.²

^{(A résumer moi-même plutôt)}

An August sky at Brantwoood, 1880, or

Cloud Study- Ice Clouds over Coniston Old Man, 1880,

Ruskin Foundation, (Ruskin Library, University of Lancaster)

Ruskin showed an enlargement of this watercolor as an illustration to the Stormcloud of the 19th century at his 1884 lectures

Le Cri de Munch

This is at the end of the second lecture :

"The harmony is now broken, and broken the world around

…Month by month the darkness gains upon the day, and the Ashes of the Antipodes glare through the night.”

In a note added for the publication of these lectures, Ruskin adds :

‘There is a reference here to the lurid sunsets of the autumn of 1883 which were thought to be due to the volcanic ashes of the eruption Krakatoa. This has been since, I hear, disproved.’

Il semble que la premiere supposition de Ruskin ait été la bonne. En effet dans une étude publié en 2004 dans la revue Sky and Telescope, le professeur de physique et d’astronomie Donald W Olson a démontré que la célèbre peinture de Munch, le Cri, peint en 1893, avait été inspiré par la vue que Munch avait eu, en 1883, des couchers de soleil ensanglantés causés par les explosions volcaniques de Krakatoa de 1883, celles-là mêmes aux quelles faisaient référence Ruskin dans son texte.

MUNCH THE SCREAM, ou Ruskin découvrant le cca

Alternative

Can they be reconciled ?

PLACE

Having predicted both warming and cooling Ruskin cld hardly go wrong/or et it wrong

And indeed experience was to prove him right on both accounts

When conclude, after come back to cooling texts after have brought in warming texts, then

This is we believe a fundamental theme of fors and a fundamental motivation for the Guild which is misundestroo without it

and this can only be understood if we take into account the text garnered toge there in Stormcloud

REPLACE

Replace all this after describe fully the first initial warming period

The idea of smoke from factories has been emphasized by the editors of the Library Edition, and repeated ever since by the commentators

There is certainly some truth here/this is part of the truth

But this is not sufficient

What is this cloud made of, asked Ruskin, of the scientists

Aerosols, they answered, the scientists the following century

Though this cooling trend did not immediately prevail it did so from the 1940’s onward, through other forms of aerosols

But this cooling trend did not prevail

What did prevail ?

We all know the answer to that, since 1988, the warmest year on record : climate warming

In the second text he mentions explicitly climate change

ALTERNATIVE

These ideas were not entirely new The basic physics had been worked out during the 19th century

There seems to ne a contraction here between these two series of texts

Yet the scientific research, that Ruskin had called for, and that culminated in the 1950’s and 1960’s, was to show that both tendencies occurred, at times simultaneously, the one or the other predominating other times at one time or another

(Or :

Yet If we follow the evolution of the global during the 19 and 20th centuries and beyond up to today and the scientific research which was (then) undertaken during the 19th century and especially during the 20th century on the question of climate change, and which Ruskin had called for, we discover that they can be climate cooling also occurred simultaneously with warming and at one time was even prevalent : from 1940 to the 1970’s, (Replace : though there was no global cooling in the 1870’s or 1880’s (check if local, order LRL ) and that both of these phenomena were due to human industrial activity )

Add ? Or place elsewhere However, for Callendar

SOLVING THE MYSTERY OF CLIMATE CHANGE (WARMING)

Place here or elsewhere : more fascinating than a good mystery story

We know how it is all unfolding at present : the warming trend has become predominant

so one might ask why go over the scientific research that establishes that it will occur

The answer is that there is still some discussion as to the degree of human responsibility in the phenomenon, the so called climat-septics minimizing or even rejecting this influence.

A self respecting ruskinian must be able to hold his own with these individuals /what is called a climato-sceptic

There are still many : they include the the great majority american republicans who are a majority in the US Congress jharusikian l

REJET

Put contradiction here ?

Thus the IR decmred i

(with fine laboratory science )

he had piped into his lab

Tyndale conclude that k

But He was only interested in solving the ice ages riddle , His discovery of was an impotent step in solving the riddle of conteprote cmaite warjg

Arrhenius takes up the question of ice age

Add Leslie text

REPLACE

But Tyndale’s fine laboratory was the next science helps solve mystery ans possibility of making something else of it

DONE

John Tyndale, the british scientist, first explained lucidly/clearly how it/this worked. He discovered that CO2 and water were greenhouse gases that were retained by …

Replace all this Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth shows many exemples of receeding glaciers, in south

There is the case of Kilimanjaro, in Kenya, Africa.

He mentions especially that in the Himalayas, where the sufficient supply provisions of drinking water will become a problem for 40% of humanity

Ruskin writes that Swiss

Gore on Himalayas

Redo : Let us note immediately how this echoes Al Gore’s assertion in …about Himalayas

MODIFIED

p. 3 :

In 1938 Callendar With the help of the world wide meteorological stations,

This It was established to some extent/confirmed more thoroughly than anyone else for the first time by Callendar in 1938 that there was climate warming going on

Omitted : Callendar joined all these elements together, and

again Callendar also was optimistic about ir results

AlsoThought it would be positive (very important to mention this)

that could explain climate change

This dId not seem very convincing to most scientists

Was just classified as an interesting possibility along with other possible causes of climate change that had been elaborated during the 19th century to explain ice ages

REJETS

quote MP 2 and Fitch ?

/demonstrates

optic/

Quote MP 2 : find this in Rennes talk or Ruskin texts on blog

From the blog

atteint

seicnevery

preset

Quote SV on slavery of modern work

olartion

from the

At this time it is

To descrobe

REPLACE WARMING TEXTS AFTER THE COOLING TEXTS

Here are the two main warming texts :

The first one is from the preface to the Queen of the Air

(Quote/place the texts here? )

Panoramic vue of Mont Blanc from the Col de la Faucille

"This first day of May, 1869, I am writing where my work was begun thirty-five years ago, within sight of the snows of the higher Alps. In that half of the permitted life of man, I have seen strange evil brought upon every scene that I best loved, or tried to make beloved by others. The light which once flushed those pale summits with its rose at dawn, and purple at sunset, is now umbered and faint; the air which once inlaid the clefts of all their golden crags with azure is now defiled with languid coils of smoke, belched from worse than volcanic fires; their very glacier waves are ebbing, and their snows fading, as if Hell had breathed on on them. »

There seems to be a reference here to Blake’s dark satanic mills. We are in the domain of the Industrial Revolution.

He pursued this theme in 1873 in Fors 34

La Douce Dame, of oct 1873, §11, (LE27.635)

"More than the life of Switzerland,—its very snows,—eternal, as one foolishly called them,—are passing away,2 as if in omen of evil. One-third, at least, in the depth of all the ice of the Alps has been lost in the last twenty years; and the change of climate thus indicated is without any parallel in authentic history. In its bearings on the water supply and atmospheric conditions of central Europe, it is the most important phenomenon,

by far, of all that offer themselves to the study of living men of science: yet in Professor Tyndall’s recent work on the glaciers,* though he notices the change as one which, “if continued, will reduce the Swiss glaciers to the mere spectres of their former selves,” he offers no evidence, nor even suggestion, as to the causes of the change itself.’ »

The first text clearly implies human activity There is an echo of Blake’s satanic mills.

What the alps had been overtaken by is the Industrial Revolution, though Ruskin cannot explain exactly how

The scientists had not yet discovered what was involved

Ruskin had been very early on extremely sensitive to the negative effects of the Industrial Revolution

In the second volume of Modern Painters, published in 1845, he puts his work in the perspective of stimulating the moral energies of the nation against the negative effects of the industrial revolution :

« And at this time, when the iron roads are tearing up the surface of Europe, as grapeshot do the sea; when their great net² is drawing and twitching the ancient frame and strength ^{(of England)} together, contracting all its various life, its rocky arms and rural heart, into a narrow, finite, calculating metropolis of manufactures; » (4.31)

add mp 2 on monuments destroyed

In the chapters on the Nature of Gothic in the second volume of Stones of Venice, published in 1853, Ruskin explains how the new industrial methods of mass production have reduced the modern workman to a form of slavery.

The facts have shown that there was a climate warming in the making

Of course/So we know that this premonition of Ruskin’s has/seems to have turned out to be all too prophetic in the derived sense of the term, and the overwhelming/large majority of scientists today consider it is to be man induced.

The scientific research that was carried, that Ruskin had called out for, out has shown that it can be argued that the main reason for this climate change is anthropogenic/anthropic , that is is caused bu human activity

It seems important to describe/to have some idea of the scientific research that was carried out that Ruskin had called for

This brief account is taken essentially from Stanley Weart’s The Discovery oc Warming

He ecrsbe how the discovery of cmiate change is loke the solving of mystery story

Fourier had lain the basis of climate science for this at the beginning of the 19th century (check at Palais de la Découverte)

He had posited as necessarily existing a greenhouse effect, to explain the present average level of temperature of +15°C stead of -18°C (see Allègre 2007, p. 91)

But he could not explain how this occurred.

In 18… , by piping gas into his laboratory from the street just outside Tyndale discovered that CO2 was opaque to …

Tyndale was interested mainly in explaining the ice ages that were then being discovered

But this discovey/ fine exemple of laboratory science of his would help to explain present climate change as well as solve the mystery of the ice ages

Arrhenius first suggested

The accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to volcanic eruptions could help explain the existence of warm ages and its absence due to the interruption/absence of volcanic eruptions could explain ice ages

Hogbom was the first to calculate/argue that CO2 emission from factories was increasing the natural emission of CO2 to the extent that there was a slight overall increase in the global tenure of CO2

This could bring an increase

But it would be beneficent @

could have the same effect as volcanic eruptions. nothat was arrhenius

He believed that this would take centuries to increase to any significant degree and that this increase would anyhow be entirely beneficent/beneficial

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar, an english engineer, with the help of the world wide meteorological stations which had been finally set up, in accordance with Ruskin’s wishes, amongst others, (see quote Ruskin on this ?), established more thoroughly than anyone else had up till then that there was climate warming going on

He also claimed, basing himself on his predecessors work, ‘what was responsible : it was us, human industry. Every where we burned fossil fuels we emitted millions of tons of carbone dioxide gas (CO2), and that was changing the climate’

This did not worry Callendar : he thought it would take a long time/centuries to have any real effects and that these would be beneficial

This explanation of Callendar did not convince most scientists

It was simply considered as one more possible explanation of climate amongst many others that had been elaborated during the 19th century to explain ice ages :

These others were The main possibilities were

Sun (include this as will bring up at end : always a possibility)

Celestial mechanics

Volcanoes activity

Research continued after the war

This was made possible by change that occurred as a consequence this war and the onset of the Cold War

These had led the military to take a new interest in meteorology.

Charles David Keeling, (was a chemist who love the outdorrs who liked being in the outdoors as much as possible ) was a interested in calculating monitoring the level of CO2 in the atmosphere

But he was not likely to find anyone willing to finance this.

Place somewhere

This made possible the very costly research that allowed to discover the anthropic aspect of this climate change, which otherwise would made possible correction impossible This explains Ruskin’s phrase ‘make of it something else or rather the other way around)

But this was solved by the new interest of the military in meteorology

Due in part to military interests

The Revelle had thought of

solves problem of ….

Sees interest of measuring co2 in atmosphere …

Gets financing for Revelle

who demonstrates that co2 is increasing in 1958

Mention cooling

But then carry on with warming

then go back to Ruskin’s storm cloud

The fact of climate warming occurred in

Replace all this Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth shows many exemples of receeding glaciers, in south

There is the case of Kilimanjaro, in Kenya, Africa.

He mentions especially that in the Himalayas, where the sufficient supply provisions of drinking water will become a problem for 40% of humanity

Ruskin writes that Swiss

Gore on Himalayas

Redo : Let us note immediately how this echoes Al Gore’s assertion in …about Himalayas

Ruskin's Discovery of Anthropic Climate Change

mercredi 23 novembre 2016

Ruskin's Discovery of Climate Change

Ruskin's Discovery of Anthropic Climate Change : cooling and warming : the greatest challenge of our Time

/the 21st century . Option 1 : two groups of texts (Final version for the moment 24.07.16)